La Liga · Spain Sat, 07 Nov · 19:30 CAT
Osasuna
HOMEMATCH PREVIEWVSEstadio El Sadar
WINNER RWANDA BET ANALYSIS · INDEPENDENT RESEARCH
Match Analysis Detail
Real match evidence, statistical estimates, model limitations, and market prices.
◷ Saturday, 7 November 2026◎ Rwanda time (CAT)
IN-HOUSE MODEL · EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATES
Who is more likely to win?
Highest estimated outcome probabilityAthletic Club Moderate model lean
57.0%Model estimate
Home win21.1%
Draw21.9%
Away win57.0%
Over 2.5 goals
58.8%
Under 2.5 goals
41.2%
Both teams score — Yes
57.3%
Both teams score — No
42.7%
Experimental statistical estimates (goal model and Elo where eligible); these are not calibrated win probabilities or promises of a result.
INDEPENDENT FORECASTS · SIDE BY SIDE
Major disagreementWhy do the predictions differ?
API-Football's external forecast compared against your in-house V3.1 estimate. Neither is a verified bookmaker price.
| Full-time outcome | API-Football | Smart Bet V3.1 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 10.0% | 21.1% | +11.1 pp |
| Draw | 45.0% | 21.9% | -23.1 pp |
| Athletic Club | 45.0% | 57.0% | +12.0 pp |
| X2 · Draw or Athletic ClubDerived by adding Draw + Away probabilities | 90.0% | 78.9% | -11.1 pp |
Provider's highest 1X2 outcomeDraw or Athletic Club (tied)
V3.1's highest 1X2 outcomeAthletic Club
Major model disagreement (up to 23.1 percentage points). Do not interpret either forecast as a confirmed best bet. Check recent injuries, expected lineups, the quality of each source and current verified prices before considering a selection.
Separate provider advice: Double chance : draw or Athletic Club Combination advice is not a single 1X2 prediction, and its probability is not established by the figures above.
How to read these numbers
The provider forecast and V3.1 are different models. They are not averaged. The Difference column equals V3.1 minus API-Football in percentage points; for example, +10 pp means V3.1 estimates the outcome 10 percentage points higher. X2 is a sum of draw and away probabilities, not a separate calibrated model. None of these figures is a betting price or proven prediction accuracy.
Older prediction model — this saved analysis was calculated by a previous version. Refresh analysis as an administrator to load same-competition, current-player and dated team evidence. Historical probabilities are not automatically corrected.
FINAL ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
Best match outcome & betting conclusion
TEAM / OUTCOME FAVOURED BY THE MODELAthletic Club
57.0% estimated probabilityModerate model lean
If choosing between the two teams by estimated win probability alone, Athletic Club is the model's preferred side. However, the other outcomes together account for 43.0%; the result remains uncertain.
Forecast disagreement: API-Football and V3.1 assign substantially different probabilities. This model's leading outcome is not a verified betting recommendation. Compare both forecasts.
BET DECISIONNo bet advised yet
Do not rely on this prediction yet
The current model favours Athletic Club, but the evidence coverage is incomplete, out of date, or the kickoff has passed. This does not justify a betting decision.
Football evidenceInsufficient or stale
Winner Rwanda oddsNo verified current prices
Confirmed team newsLineups not yet confirmed
Why this conclusion?
- Historical match form and estimated goal rates
- The statistical evidence is older than 12 hours or unavailable.
- Winner Rwanda listing has not been independently verified.
- The model is experimental and not independently calibrated.
MATCH MARKET EXPLORER
Compare betting markets
Choose a market to examine estimated probabilities and available verified Winner Rwanda prices.
1X2Full-time match result
Double ChanceTwo possible full-time results
Under/Over 2.5Total match goals
SELECT AN OUTCOME ABOVEMarket comparison
Select any market outcome to review its model estimate and bookmaker-price availability.
Experimental model—Verified Winner odds—
Double Chance percentages add the mutually exclusive 1X2 probabilities; they are not independently calibrated. Winner Rwanda prices appear only after current verification. No selection is an instruction to bet.
Explore the evidenceChoose a section to view. The main outcome and decision remain above.
Recent team form · comparison table
Completed matches before kickoff. Summary covers the available sample; form strip shows the most recent ten.
| Performance indicator | Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Completed games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 1 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.10 | 0.60 |
| Last 10 results Most recent first | LWLWLDLLLW | WWWLDWDDWW |
W = Win · D = Draw · L = Loss. Sample sizes can differ between clubs. Recent form alone does not adjust for opponent difficulty or confirmed starting players.
Head-to-head results
Previous encounters between the clubs
2026-04-21Athletic Club1 – 0Osasuna
2026-01-03Osasuna1 – 1Athletic Club
2025-03-30Athletic Club0 – 0Osasuna
2025-01-16Athletic Club2 – 3Osasuna
2024-12-21Osasuna1 – 2Athletic Club
2024-08-03Athletic Club2 – 1Osasuna
2024-05-11Athletic Club2 – 2Osasuna
Injuries & player availability
Player reports supplied by the football provider
No injury report available
This does not confirm that every player is fit. Check official team news before kickoff.
Starting lineups
Confirmed team selections when published
Lineups not yet announced
Starting elevens are usually confirmed closer to kickoff. This section updates when the data feed provides them.
Players & current team situation
Season player statistics, observed injuries and confirmed lineups are separate sources of information
Osasuna
20 season records available · 0 reported injury item(s)
CatenaDefender · 10 apps
0Goals1Assists6.8Rating
Abel BretonesDefender · 11 apps
0Goals0Assists6.4Rating
A. BudimirAttacker · 11 apps
8Goals0Assists7.3Rating
MoncayolaMidfielder · 11 apps
0Goals0Assists6.6Rating
Iker MuñozMidfielder · 9 apps
0Goals0Assists6.0Rating
Rubén GarcíaMidfielder · 11 apps
0Goals1Assists6.8Rating
Moi GómezAttacker · 8 apps
0Goals2Assists7.0Rating
Sergio HerreraGoalkeeper · 6 apps
0Goals0Assists5.8Rating
Jonathan DubasinMidfielder · 11 apps
0Goals0Assists6.4Rating
Raúl GarcíaAttacker · 11 apps
1Goals1Assists6.6Rating
F. BoyomoDefender · 6 apps
0Goals0Assists6.7Rating
Aitor FernándezGoalkeeper · 5 apps
0Goals0Assists5.8Rating
Lucas TorróMidfielder · 8 apps
0Goals0Assists5.8Rating
Raul MoroAttacker · 8 apps
0Goals0Assists6.6Rating
V. RosierDefender · 4 apps
0Goals0Assists6.3Rating
Kike BarjaMidfielder · 8 apps
1Goals0Assists6.5Rating
Jorge HerrandoDefender · 3 apps
0Goals0Assists6.8Rating
Aimar OrozMidfielder · 3 apps
0Goals0Assists6.6Rating
Diego RicoDefender · 2 apps
0Goals0Assists3.4Rating
R. Del CastilloAttacker · 2 apps
0Goals0Assists6.8Rating
Athletic Club
20 season records available · 0 reported injury item(s)
Unai SimónGoalkeeper · 11 apps
0Goals0Assists7.0Rating
Aymeric LaporteDefender · 9 apps
0Goals0Assists6.9Rating
I. WilliamsMidfielder · 11 apps
3Goals2Assists6.6Rating
Álex BerenguerAttacker · 11 apps
4Goals4Assists7.1Rating
YuriDefender · 9 apps
1Goals0Assists6.0Rating
Robert NavarroMidfielder · 9 apps
2Goals0Assists6.2Rating
Aitor ParedesDefender · 8 apps
2Goals0Assists6.4Rating
Nico WilliamsMidfielder · 9 apps
1Goals1Assists6.9Rating
Oihan SancetMidfielder · 7 apps
1Goals0Assists6.7Rating
Ruíz de GalarretaMidfielder · 9 apps
0Goals1Assists6.8Rating
Hugo RincónDefender · 6 apps
0Goals0Assists5.7Rating
YerayDefender · 7 apps
0Goals1Assists5.2Rating
Jesús AresoDefender · 7 apps
0Goals0Assists4.6Rating
Maroan SannadiAttacker · 7 apps
0Goals0Assists5.5Rating
Gorka GuruzetaAttacker · 5 apps
0Goals0Assists5.4Rating
Dani VivianDefender · 2 apps
0Goals0Assists2.8Rating
Beñat PradosMidfielder · 2 apps
0Goals0Assists2.5Rating
Nico SerranoAttacker · 1 apps
0Goals0Assists1.1Rating
Álvaro DjalóAttacker · 1 apps
0Goals0Assists3.3Rating
Álex PadillaGoalkeeper · 0 apps
0Goals0Assists0.0Rating
⌁ Season statistics are from a partial API-Football player response; they do not confirm player fitness, selection, availability or a starting XI. Confirmed match lineups appear in the team-news section above, when published.
Current team comparison
Recent completed fixtures only · limited to the evidence available for this match
MetricOsasunaAthletic Club
Last completed matches1010
Wins in sample36
Goals scored (sample)1520
Goals conceded (sample)216
A stronger recent record can inform the model, but fixture strength, home/away context, current injuries and final team selection can materially change the outlook. Do not interpret this comparison as a betting guarantee.
Evidence-based tactical analysis
Key evidence presented as a table; full OpenAI explanation available on demand.
| Evidence factor | Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Recent record | 3W · 1D · 6L | 6W · 3D · 1L |
| Goals scored / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.10 | 0.60 |
| Model expected goals | 1.10 | 1.95 |
| Season player records | 20 supplied | 20 supplied |
| Confirmed lineup | Not supplied | Not supplied |
Player season records do not establish fitness or selection. Missing injury reports do not establish that a team has no injuries.
Read full OpenAI match explanation
Osasuna's recent form shows they score 1.5 goals per match but concede 2.1, with a 30% win rate and 10 points from their last 10 games. Athletic Club performs better recently, scoring 2 goals per match while conceding only 0.6, with a 60% win rate and 21 points from 10 games. Head-to-head results suggest a competitive matchup with Athletic Club having more recent wins. Key players for Osasuna include Budimir with 8 goals this season, while Athletic Club features goal contributors like Iñaki Williams (3 goals) and Álex Berenguer (4 goals). The prediction model estimates Athletic Club as the likely winner, with an expected 1.95 goals compared to Osasuna's 1.1, and suggests the match is likely to have over 2.5 total goals and both teams to score. However, no injury or lineup data is provided, so current fitness and selection impact cannot be assessed.
Observed strengths
- Athletic Club has strong recent defensive and offensive form, conceding only 0.6 goals and scoring 2 per game on average in last 10 matches.
- Osasuna's top scorer Budimir has contributed 8 goals this season, showing capacity to score.
- Head-to-head data indicates Athletic Club has edged recent meetings, supporting their current form advantage.
- Prediction models favor Athletic Club with about 57% chance of victory and anticipate over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
Important uncertainties
- No current injury or confirmed lineup information to verify player availability or match fitness.
- Player season stats do not guarantee current performance or selection for this match.
- Prediction model is experimental and uncalibrated, so probabilities have inherent uncertainty.
Missing evidence: Confirmed lineups to assess tactical setup and player roles. · Injury updates or suspensions affecting starting eleven or substitutes. · Verified bookmaker odds or official betting market prices for comparison with model probabilities.
Independent provider · explanation
API-Football opinion, separate from the V3.1 research model.
| Forecast source | API-Football |
|---|---|
| Provider's named side | Athletic Club |
| Highest 1X2 chance | Draw or Athletic Club (tied) |
| Betting combination suggested | Double chance : draw or Athletic Club |
| Agreement with V3.1 | Major disagreement |
Provider advice and percentages are informational. A suggested combination such as X2 plus under 3.5 goals does not have a quantified joint probability here. See side-by-side probabilities.
Winner Rwanda odds & market comparison
Only independently verified event listings with current market snapshots
Cannot identify a price-supported bet yet
Current Winner Rwanda prices are missing, expired, or the statistical evidence is insufficient. You can still review the team's predicted result above, but a most-likely winner is not automatically a worthwhile wager.
Observed odds movement
Historical Winner Rwanda market records
No historical Winner Rwanda prices recorded for this fixture.
Read before placing a bet
These are experimental, uncalibrated estimates based on incomplete football data. No outcome is guaranteed, and past results do not ensure future success. Only spend money you can afford to lose, and verify the final price and team news directly with the bookmaker.
Show all 3 model and source warnings
- Winner Rwanda listing is not verified. Statistical estimates may still be shown, but no verified bookmaker prices or recommendations are available.
- Current Winner Rwanda market odds are unavailable.
- Model is experimental and not calibrated against held-out historical results.